Tech Experts Debate the Possibility of Online Traffic Jams

LOS ANGELES — In the past year, Google, Yahoo, Apple and AOL all have either introduced or significantly beefed up their video download services, leading to a rash of media stories touting an online video “big bang” — and leading technology analysts to predict online traffic jams.

The boom in videos being downloaded from mainstream sites added to already heavy bandwidth usage from adult sites is putting unprecedented stress levels on Internet service providers’ networks, analysts say.

“Everyone loses in the current scenario,” Michael Billard, a former Hewlett-Packard executive, said. “What we need is a way to amplify the bandwidth that's available.”

Billard says that if video downloads continue to increase at their current rate and industry doesn’t develop technologies to keep data flowing through the pipes, ISPs will take a financial hit and possibly look to pass on some of the cost to sites that have a high volume of video downloads.

For example, AT&T recently said it may look into charging companies like Google and Yahoo that place large strains on their bandwidth in exchange for ensuring that their content is delivered quickly.

However, opinions are split regarding whether bandwidth usage due to video downloads is actually endangering network speeds.

“ISPs' rhetoric is increasingly strident about content from outside providers raising the costs of their networks,” Jupiter Research analyst Joe Laszlo said. “But I haven't seen hard data that suggests the volume of legitimate video is coming close to swamping ISP networks yet.”

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