US e-Commerce Contraction - then Surge

Joe D
eMarketer has forecast that US retail e-commerce sales - not including travel - will fall to $133 billion in 2009, dipping by 0.4%.

There is still good news in the gloomy prediction however --- it is expected that as the economy turns around and improves, online sales will once again resume the double-digit annual growth seen prior to 2008.

The report further predicts that by 2012, e-commerce sales growth will start to decline—as new online US buyer debuts approach saturation. Ongoing increases should result from existing buyers online transitioning more of their bricks and mortar purchasing to online spending.

According to eMarketer predictions, after the 2009 dip, retail e-commerce sales will increase steadily by 65% from 2009 to 2013.

What do you think of the predictions? Most observers can relate to the expected contraction for 2009, sitting with 50% of their assets compared to just a year ago…but do you anticipate the same surge expectations through 2013?

Access the eMarketer US Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2008–2013 report, and all eMarketer research and analysis.

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